The Coal Giant on Shaky Legs

Yallourn Power Station has been keeping Victoria’s lights on for nearly a century. At its peak, six units pumped out coal-fired power from the Latrobe Valley. Today, just four remain, delivering around 22% of Victoria’s electricity and 8% of the NEM.

But here’s the uncomfortable truth: Yallourn isn’t the reliable baseload giant it once was. It’s limping. Ageing gear, costly fixes, and a track record of unplanned outages are all stacking up. So the question isn’t just can it make it to 2028? It’s what happens if it doesn’t?

The Numbers Don’t Lie

Source: Open Electricity

According to Open Electrcity, Yallourn averaged 149,414 MWh/week over the past year. Sounds solid, right? Until you look closer.

• Half-strength operation: Even in peak demand periods, output often reflects just two units consistently running, with the others cycling in and out.
  
• Stop-start baseload: In the last year the average capacity factor is just 60.5%

Source: Open Electricity

This isn’t the definition of “baseload". This shift from “always on” to “patchwork operation” is a stark sign of structural decline – and one that energy buyers increasingly need professional energy consultants to help navigate.

Breaking Down, Over and Over

Yallourn’s patchy data is reinforced by a string of recent failures:

• August 2025: Unit 2 forced out of service due to a low-pressure turbine failure. Repair timelines are currently unknown, and questions remain about whether a spare turbine is even available. EnergyAustralia won’t say.
  
• June 2025: Unit 3 taken offline after an internal air duct literally collapsed during routine maintenance; Unit 4 tripped within 24 hours of returning from it's own scheduled maintenance.
  
• 2024 data: Yallourn had at least one unit offline from unplanned outages 32% of the time – equating to around 12 weeks of downtime per unit across the year.

This is a power station held together with patches and prayer. And while it coughs and splutters, demand keeps rising. Energy procurement experts will tell you: don’t assume this plant will always be there to catch the load.

What the Market Feels

Every outage hits the market like a hammer:

• Tighter supply: Victoria’s reliance on brown coal means outages directly push up wholesale prices. Spot market turnover has already spiked during periods when multiple units were down.
  
• Volatility risks: On low-wind days, the system remains precariously balanced. With Yallourn unreliable, the risk of price surges and interventions increases.
  
• Accelerated transition: Each failure strengthens the case for fast-tracking storage, demand response, and renewables to fill the gap – creating opportunities for businesses to rethink energy management services and procurement strategy.

What If Yallourn Completely Falls Over?

Let’s be real. The closure date is 2028, but Yallourn might bow out early — or simply collapse under its own weight.

If that happens:

• 1.45 GW disappears overnight. That’s a hole you can’t plug with wishful thinking.
  
• Spot prices go wild. Contract and pass-through costs rise, fast.
  
• The transition crunch comes early. Offshore wind and interconnectors aren’t ready yet. Gas becomes the reluctant backbone.

That’s why energy consulting isn’t just a nice-to-have right now. It’s about staying in front of a risk that could turn into a system-wide crisis with one bad summer.

What’s Next?

• For the market: Expect volatility every time Yallourn sneezes. Early closure will hurt unless storage and firming get moving, fast.
  
• For EnergyAustralia: They’re bleeding cash to keep Yallourn alive while rivals push ahead on batteries and renewables.
  
• For policy makers: Victoria’s 95% renewables target by 2035 depends on delivery, not promises. The timeline is shrinking.

The Bottom Line

Yallourn is running out of road. The question isn’t whether it makes it to 2028. It’s whether businesses can afford to sit back and hope it does.

For commercial energy users, the move is clear:

• Expect volatility. It’s baked in.
  
• Secure alternatives early. Through renewables, demand response, or firming contracts.
  
• Don’t trust the closure date. The operating reality is writing a different story.

At Utilizer energy consultants are working with businesses to cut through this uncertainty, using energy procurement strategies and energy management services to reduce exposure and give clients real options. Yallourn is today’s headline, but the bigger play is how you position for the system that’s coming. We can help with that, let's talk.