As Australia inches toward the federal election on May 3rd, gas has taken centre stage – this time not just for its role in energy reliability, but for the economics behind how it’s taxed, exported, and used. As independent energy consultants, we keep a close eye on how these conversations shape market dynamics, influence pricing, and affect the decisions facing large energy users.

A recent report by The Australia Institute has reignited public debate, claiming that INPEX—a major gas exporter—pays no royalties or petroleum resource rent tax (PRRT) and contributes little, if any, corporate tax, despite exporting more gas than is used by households and businesses in NSW, Victoria, and South Australia combined.

INPEX has previously responded by highlighting its investment in Australia, employment contributions, and long-term supply partnerships with Japan. But the divide between stakeholders is growing louder, because this conversation isn’t just confined to political talking points.

Economists, independent MPs, and policy institutes like the Grattan Institute have also raised serious questions about whether Australia is receiving a fair return on its natural gas exports. Senate estimates hearings and media investigations have added to the pressure, prompting renewed calls for reform and transparency.

We recently broke down how the major political parties are positioning themselves on gas reform, offering two very different visions for the sector’s future. But while the policy debate unfolds, commercial and industrial gas users are left asking a more immediate question: what does this mean for pricing, supply, and planning?

What It Means for Business

While the public conversation focuses on tax structures and export volumes, the ripple effects for business are already in motion:

• Tax and royalty reform could change the economics of gas exports, with flow-on effects for wholesale prices.
• Emissions caps or export restrictions may impact domestic supply or contract flexibility.
• Increased scrutiny on producers could affect how risk is priced and passed on by retailers and generators.
• Political and regulatory uncertainty could drive greater market volatility.

What We're Watching

At Utilizer, we don’t speculate on politics—but as independent energy consultants, we stay across market dynamics, regulatory shifts, and contract trends that shape the options available to large energy users.

Right now, we’re paying close attention to:

• Trends in forward gas pricing and ASX energy futures
• Ongoing consultation around emissions caps and PRRT reform
• Market responses, especially around long-term gas contracting and risk transfer to end users

Planning Ahead in Uncertain Conditions

The key takeaway? Staying informed and engaging early makes all the difference.

Whether legislative changes land in six months or two years, businesses that plan ahead will be better positioned to manage risk, avoid price shocks, and retain flexibility. But you don’t need to track every policy paper or briefing note, we’re here to do that for you!

If your next contract cycle is approaching, or if you’re reviewing your broader energy mix, now’s the time to talk strategy. Let’s build a plan that keeps you ahead, no matter where the gas market goes next.

Want to talk through what this means for your business?

Speak with one of our expert energy consultants today.