The Clean Energy Council’s annual report is out. The headline figures are impressive. But for commercial and industrial energy buyers, the more interesting story is what’s happening underneath them.
The Clean Energy Council’s Clean Energy Australia 2026 report is out, and the numbers are genuinely impressive. 42.7% of Australia’s electricity from renewables. 2.0 GW of large-scale battery storage commissioned in a single year, up 233% on 2024. Renewables exceeding fossil fuels in a calendar quarter for the first time ever.
All of that is real. None of it tells you what your energy is going to cost in 2027 or 2028.
For that, you need to look at the pipeline. And the pipeline tells a very different story.
The grid and the pipeline are telling different stories
There’s a distinction worth making here that most energy market commentary glosses over. What’s been built and what’s being committed to build next are two separate questions. The first determines today’s generation mix. The second shapes supply conditions, and therefore wholesale prices, in two to three years.
In 2025, financial commitments for new large-scale generation eased considerably. Only 2.3 GW reached financial close, down from 4.4 GW the year prior. Wind saw the steepest drop, from 2.2 GW of new commitments to 857 MW. The CEC points to a combination of inflation, regulatory bottlenecks, and transmission delays as the key causes rather than any shortage of project ambition.
The 64 GW waiting for connection suggests capital and ambition aren’t the issue. The report points to planning, approvals, and transmission as the things slowing projects from getting built. Whether those barriers ease any time soon remains to be seen.
It’s also worth keeping in mind that the CEC, as the peak body for the clean energy industry, has a natural interest in highlighting what’s holding the pipeline back. Making the case that investment is being slowed by policy and regulatory barriers is core to their advocacy work. That doesn’t make the data wrong, and the numbers come from real project activity. But it’s worth reading the pipeline story with that in mind, alongside the fact that 64 GW of projects are actively trying to connect. The ambition is clearly there. The question is how quickly the system catches up.
Today’s grid reflects commitments made two and three years ago. How the pipeline develops from here could shape supply conditions in 2027 and 2028, which is the window many C&I procurement decisions being made now will sit inside.
Coal reliability is a growing concern
The other side of the supply picture is what’s leaving the system. Australia’s coal fleet is ageing, and the reliability data in the CEC report reflects that. In the summer of 2025-26, around 25% of coal capacity across QLD, NSW and VIC was unavailable at any given time due to unplanned outages.
The report notes these outages are soaking up some of the downward price pressure that growing renewable supply would otherwise be delivering. Abundant solar during the day, a coal unit offline in the evening, and the spot price responds. Batteries are absorbing some of that volatility, but the dynamic is worth understanding rather than assuming it sorts itself out quickly.
What a weakening pipeline could mean for your procurement
If supply does tighten in two to three years, it could put upward pressure on forward contract prices. It may mean the market conditions that suit certain procurement approaches today look different by the time the next round of decisions comes around. For businesses thinking about procurement now, it’s worth having a view on where the pipeline is heading, not just where prices are today.
There’s also a shift happening at the peak that’s worth understanding. Large-scale batteries are increasingly displacing gas peakers as the price-setter during high-demand periods. Battery costs fell around 20% in 2025. The daily price curve is flattening. A procurement approach built around a gas-dominated market may not work as well in one shaped by batteries. Whether any of that is relevant to your situation depends on your load profile, contract structure, and how much price risk you’re carrying.
Reading the headline and assuming the market is moving in your favour may not be the full picture. The generation mix is improving. The pipeline is under pressure. Both things can be true at the same time. What that means for any individual business depends on their contracts, consumption, and exposure, but it’s worth asking the question.
Frequently asked questions
What did the Clean Energy Australia 2026 report find about the investment pipeline?
The Clean Energy Council’s Clean Energy Australia 2026 report found that financial commitments for new large-scale renewable generation dropped sharply in 2025, with only 2.3 GW reaching financial close, down from 4.4 GW in 2024. Wind was hardest hit, with commitments falling from 2.2 GW to just 857 MW. This is despite a record 64 GW of generation and storage currently waiting for grid connection, pointing to planning, approvals, and transmission as the key constraints rather than a lack of capital or project ambition.
Why does the renewable energy investment pipeline matter to C&I energy buyers?
What reaches financial close today becomes available generation capacity in two to three years. A weaker pipeline in 2025 means tighter supply conditions in 2027 and 2028. Tighter supply puts upward pressure on wholesale electricity prices and forward contract rates. For commercial and industrial businesses making procurement decisions now, understanding where the pipeline is heading is as important as understanding where prices are today.
Why is coal unreliability still affecting electricity prices if renewables are growing?
Australia’s coal fleet is deteriorating rather than retiring in an orderly way. In the summer of 2025-26, around 25% of coal capacity across QLD, NSW and VIC was unavailable at any given time due to unplanned outages. These outages create wholesale price spikes that regularly offset the downward pressure that growing renewable supply should otherwise be delivering. Until coal exits the system with firm replacement capacity already in place, this pattern of volatility is likely to continue.
How are large-scale batteries changing wholesale electricity prices in Australia?
Large-scale batteries are increasingly displacing gas peakers as the price-setter during peak demand periods. Capital costs for batteries fell around 20% in 2025, and the trend is expected to continue as batteries compete more frequently with each other rather than with gas. This is flattening the intraday price curve, changing the value of time-of-use strategies and peak demand management for commercial and industrial energy buyers.
The generation mix is improving. The pipeline is under pressure. Do you know which one your procurement strategy is built on?
Utilizer works with commercial and industrial businesses across Australia to navigate procurement decisions with a clear view of where the market is actually heading.
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