March and April brought renewed volatility across Australia’s energy market, with sharp electricity price spikes in New South Wales and Queensland, steady conditions in South Australia, and moderate increases in Victoria.

Meanwhile, gas prices remained relatively stable over the quarter, but regional variations and shifting LNG market dynamics are beginning to signal tightening supply pressures heading into late 2025.

While some states showed periods of stabilisation, the underlying trends point to persistent variability across both electricity and gas markets — reinforcing the importance of proactive, strategic energy procurement planning.

Electricity Prices

ASX Energy Futures ($/MWh): March - April 2025

• New South Wales: Electricity prices remained relatively stable through March, with futures trading around $109.95/MWh. However, April to date has seen a 1% increase, closing at $120.72/MWh on 25 April, with a peak of $122.74. This spike was largely attributed to unplanned outages of several coal-fired generators, underscoring the market's sensitivity to baseload disruptions.
  
  
• Queensland: March's electricity prices were influenced by Cyclone Alfred, which caused significant disruptions in early March. Prices rose from $101.54 to a peak of $105.50 on 24 March. After a brief decline, April experienced another surge due to unplanned outages, with prices stabilising towards the month's end. Overall, Queensland recorded a 2.3% increase over the two-month period.
  
  
• South Australia: SA's electricity market demonstrated remarkable stability during March and April, with futures prices consistently around $96–97/MWh. This steadiness is attributed to wind generation accounting for approximately 60% of the state's energy supply, highlighting the resilience provided by a high renewable energy mix.
  
  
• Victoria: In Vic, electricity prices have exhibited a 4.2% increase over March and April, closing at $78.40/MWh on 25 April, after reaching a low of $75.06/MWh in mid-March. The state experienced the largest percentage increase in price spread (5.2%) over the two months, reflecting its sensitivity to market fluctuations. Factors contributing to this volatility include a strong reliance on coal generation assets and the challenges associated with integrating renewable energy sources.

Gas Prices

East Coast Gas Spot Prices ($/GJ): January - March 2025

LNG Netback Price Trends & Forecasts ($/GJ): January 2024 - April 2027

• New South Wales: Spot gas prices rose 13.8% Year-on-Year (YoY), from $11.71 to $13.33 in Q1 2025, with the sharpest jump occurring in January (+18%). Prices eased slightly by 3.2% Month-on-Month (MoM) from February to March 2025 ($13.54 → $13.10), reflecting a slight moderation following strong summer demand. Ongoing supply tightness, particularly from southern production declines, continues to support higher prices, consistent with AER warnings of sustained market pressure through 2025.
  
  
• Queensland: A 22% surge in January drove a 15.6% YoY rise in Queensland’s spot gas prices, lifting from $11.80 to $13.64. From February to March, prices rose a further 1.0% MoM ($13.41 → $13.55), reflecting persistent LNG export pressure and solid domestic demand. Volatility remains elevated due to Queensland’s exposure to global LNG market dynamics, particularly during hotter-than-average summers.
  
  
• South Australia: Following strong gains across the summer, spot prices rose 16.0% YoY from $11.65 to $13.51. March saw a modest 0.7% decline MoM ($13.61 → $13.52), suggesting some easing after peak seasonal load. Nevertheless, constrained local supply and reliance on gas during periods of renewable intermittency continue to sustain upward pressure, with regulators highlighting emerging risks of future shortfalls.
  
  
• Victoria: A more subdued 8.8% YoY increase was recorded, with prices moving from $11.19 to $12.18 across Q1. However, March delivered a sharp 5.8% MoM fall ($12.56 → $11.83) as softer end-of-summer demand and improved storage utilisation helped stabilise the market. Despite this near-term softness, structural supply challenges linked to Bass Strait declines and policy constraints remain a medium-term concern.
  
  
• LNG Netback Prices: prices have increased notably compared to 2024, rising from an annual average of $15.09/GJ in 2024 to a projected $17.63/GJ on average in 2025, a 16.8% YoY increase. However, within 2025, netback prices have declined from $19.94/GJ in January to $16.63/GJ by mid-April, reflecting a 17% drop over the quarter as global supply conditions eased and Asian spot LNG demand softened.

What Does This Mean for You?

Recent energy market movements — including sharp electricity price spikes in New South Wales and Queensland, steady conditions elsewhere, and early signs of tightening in the gas market — highlight the importance of having a clear, forward-looking procurement strategy.

With regional gas price shifts and evolving LNG market dynamics beginning to reshape future supply conditions, now is the time for gas-reliant businesses to review existing contracts, assess longer-term options, and build resilience into their energy plans.

At Utilizer, we work alongside you to navigate changing energy markets with confidence — developing tailored procurement strategies that align with your business priorities, operational needs, and risk appetite.

ACCC Warns Gas Prices May Spike Without New Supply

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has warned that east coast gas prices are at risk of sharp rises from late 2025 if new supply projects are not delivered on time, creating new risks in the domestic energy market. According to the ACCC’s March 2025 interim gas inquiry report, uncontracted gas for domestic users could fall short, putting pressure on both availability and prices.

While LNG exporters currently have surplus volumes, the ACCC noted that delays in upstream projects and strong international demand could quickly change the balance.

What Does This Mean for You?

Gas-reliant businesses should start reviewing forward procurement strategies now, particularly for 2026 and beyond. Securing multi-year supply agreements, exploring demand management options, or building dual-fuel flexibility into operations could help protect against future cost spikes. If the energy market feels daunting, you’re not alone — at Utilizer, we can help you navigate the risks and put a plan in place that gives you more certainty and control.

AER reviewing 2025–26 Gas Network Tariffs

The Australian Energy Regulator (AER) has commenced compliance checks on the proposed 2025–26 gas network tariffs submitted by distribution businesses across South Australia, Victoria, Queensland, the Northern Territory, and the ACT.

These checks ensure that the new gas network charges are consistent with the businesses’ approved five-year access arrangements, supporting broader stability in the energy market as network costs continue to evolve. The final approved tariffs — along with a Statement of Reasons for each network — are expected to be published in May 2025, ahead of the new charges taking effect from 1 July.

While these changes apply at the network level, the impacts will flow through to retailers and ultimately to business and residential gas customers through their delivered gas bills.

What Does This Mean for You?

Changes to gas network tariffs will contribute to the overall cost of delivered gas from 1 July 2025.
While retailers are the ones who directly pay network charges, these costs are generally passed through to customers in retail gas pricing.

Businesses with significant gas usage should factor potential network cost movements into upcoming contract negotiations or budget planning. At Utilizer, we can help you stay ahead of these changes — working with you to review your gas contracts and procurement strategies to manage cost impacts effectively.

First Renewable Energy Zone Set to Commence Construction

Australia’s first formally declared Renewable Energy Zone (REZ) is set to move into construction within months after the New South Wales Government awarded ACEREZ (a consortium of Acciona Concesiones, Cobra and Endeavour Energy) the contract to deliver the Central-West Orana REZ transmission project. This project will establish critical infrastructure that will connect solar, wind farms and energy storage to the NSW electricity grid. 

ACEREZ will design, build, finance, operate, and maintain the transmission infrastructure for 35 years, unlocking up to 3 GW of new renewable generation and storage capacity.

What Does This Mean for You?

The commencement of construction in the first REZ is a major milestone for Australia's energy future.
For businesses, it signals upcoming opportunities to access larger volumes of renewable energy — either through direct corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) or as a driver of more competitive wholesale electricity prices over time.

Energy Policy Front and Centre as Labor Claims Victory

With Labor set to return for a second term, energy policy — particularly the future role of gas — is set to remain a central focus. Labor has consistently backed a market-based approach to gas supply management, coupled with a strong push for renewables and electrification as part of its broader transition strategy.

This contrasts with the Coalition’s campaign proposal for a national gas reservation policy — a more direct intervention aimed at boosting domestic supply and lowering prices. The ACCC’s recent warnings of potential gas shortfalls by late 2025 have added urgency to these policy conversations.

While Labor’s return signals policy continuity in the short term, implementation and regulatory responses will be closely watched by large energy users and investors alike.

What Does This Mean for You?

The election result means continued focus on renewables and market-led gas management — but potential supply pressures and pricing risks remain. Businesses reliant on gas should assess forward procurement options, monitor upcoming regulatory moves, and consider long-term strategies to build price and supply resilience.

Empowering Smarter Business Decisions

The energy market in April 2025 reflects the complex forces shaping Australia’s future — rising costs, supply constraints, policy shifts, and growing opportunities in renewable energy. In this environment, making informed, strategic decisions about your energy procurement has never been more important.

If you’d like tailored advice to help your business navigate market changes, manage risks, or explore renewable options, reach out to our team. We’re here to empower you with the insights and solutions needed to secure the best-available energy outcomes.